How the electricity price moves in winter

The electricity price is almost always higher in winter than in summer. The cold drives up consumption when everyone heats their homes at once, the sun contributes almost nothing, and the most expensive hours land in the morning and the evening. How high it goes depends on the weather, and the price swings more, not less, the colder it gets.

Because everyone needs more power at the same time, right when there's the least of it. When it's cold the heat pump works harder, radiators and underfloor heating pull more, and they do it across the whole country at once. At the same time the solar panels sit nearly still and the days are short. More demand and less of your own production, that's the whole explanation for why power costs more in January than in July.

On top of that the weather plays in from hour to hour. A cold, windless week pushes the price up, a mild, windy week pulls it down. Winter is simply the season when the price has the most reason to move.

In the morning and in the evening. When the house wakes, the coffee has to be brewed and the heat has to come back up after the night, consumption rises across the whole country at the same time, and the price follows. The same thing happens when everyone comes home, cooks and charges the car. In the middle of the night, when most things are switched off, power is at its cheapest.

The gap between the expensive and the cheap hours is often bigger in winter than in summer. That means when you use the electricity matters more then, not just how much.

More than you'd think, and rarely on schedule. The spot price is reset every hour and is driven by how much power there is and how much is needed right then. In winter both of those things move: the cold changes consumption and the wind changes production. A cold high-pressure week with no wind can produce genuinely high hours, while a windy spell can produce surprisingly low ones.

Where in the country you live also matters. Sweden is divided into four electricity areas, and in the south the price is as a rule higher than in the north. So the same winter day can cost different amounts depending on where the house stands.

Because the two things that drive the bill hit at the same time. You use more electricity when it's cold, and each kilowatt-hour costs more just then. It isn't one or the other, it's both at once, and that's why the January invoice feels a whole class above the July one.

It's also why a variable electricity bill is hardest to predict in winter. You know it will be higher, but not by how much, because that's settled by weather you can't see in advance.

Yes, in theory: use less electricity during the expensive hours and more during the cheap ones. Charge the car at night, let the heat pump work when the price is low, and avoid running everything at once at six in the evening. In practice it's a full-time job to keep track of, and the gain easily disappears into the hassle.

That's the part that can be automated. A heat pump, a battery and a bit of control can shift consumption to the right hours without you having to think about it. But then someone has to run the control, otherwise you're back to staring at the spot price every evening.

You don't notice it on the bill. Elvy owns the equipment, steers it against the spot price and takes the hit when power is expensive, so that your monthly fee stays put. The same amount in January as in July, without you needing to know what the price got up to overnight.

Winter is still dearest for whoever trades the electricity, but that's our job, not yours. The closest you get to winter's electricity prices is that someone else has already done the sums on them.